Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
